Monday, September 29, 2008

The growth era in higher education is over?

I disagree with most of this argument (we can’t raise tuition anymore, and govt. money/fund-raising/endowment potential is now tapped out as well, meaning that a long period of higher education austerity is upon us), but I hear it more and more.

http://www.insidehighered.com/views/2008/09/29/burke

My response is that productivity rates in the economy and international trade continue to increase. That means that even if the economy grows only slowly over the next decade (and I'm more optimistic than that), the percentage of income dedicated to non-service areas will continue to decline, and the percentage of income allotted for things like health care and education will continue to go up. I’ve seen projections of a slowdown in these rates of increase, but absolutely no serious talk about a reversal of these trends toward more and more money being spent on health care and education.

What I do see as increasingly possible, however, is a number of bubble institutions failing in a recessionary economy. That’s what’s supposed to happen in a recession, right? The marginal institutions fail and the strong institutions get stronger. Since I believe us to be one of those strong institutions, I see this eventuality as an opportunity and not something to be overly worried about . . . yet.