Predicting the commercial success of creative endeavors?

If there are "rules" for the commercial success of creative endeavors, can we teach those? And if statistical analysis works for predicting the success of music and movies, as well as basketball players, can we follow a similar process for predicting the success of a teacher, politician, etc.?

http://www.gladwell.com/2006/2006_10_16_a_formula.html

http://www.gladwell.com/2006/2006_05_29_a_game.html